the co-chair of the energy strategies Foundation of Ukraine Dmitry marunich has explained to the correspondent Federal news Agency in Kiev, why the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine will cease in the near future.
According to experts, the gas pipeline "Nord stream-2" and "Turkish stream" will be so cost effective that after their launch of the transit of gas through Ukraine loses economic sense for Russia and even for Europe.
"Everything that happens with the transit, a good demonstration of the policy of the current Kiev authorities, — was noted by Dmitry marunich in the comment to the correspondent of the FAN. — Their purpose — at any price to realize the agenda that was laid down after coming in "Naftogaz" the current Pro-government team. One of the goals of this team — total collapse of the transit transport flows. I worked for the company "Naftogaz of Ukraine", and I remember early in each booklet, which was issued annually, it was written that we energy bridge between East and West".
However, according to the interlocutor of the FAN, it is obvious that the current policy of Kiev say that Ukraine can become a bridge between West and East, are no longer necessary.
It is no secret that the Russian Federation, not hoping to Kiev as a reliable partner, have already directed their streams of transit cargo at Russian ports. The first effects of his anti-Russian policy was felt by the Baltic States, next was Ukraine, said Kiev economist.
"With gas and oil is something like that. In principle, it was laid back in 2014 [the coup in Kiev — approx. FAN], so there is nothing surprising here, — said Dmitry Marunych.
— I find it funny to read some of the things that caught me some documents which have the character of limited access. It reads in part: as soon as the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine will stop [Russian President Vladimir] Putin allegedly will immediately invade us and take over. This is one of the provisions, which was discussed at numerous negotiations and consultations of Ukrainian officials from the oil and gas complex in Brussels, in Washington and other capitals. That's right this text: it is impossible to prevent the fall of the transit."
thus, according to the interlocutor of the FAN, such talk is pointless, because from an economic point of view, the continuation of the transit through Ukraine is not for "Gazprom" there is no economic logic.
According to the Marunich, said that Ukraine will receive this year's 2.7 billion dollars for the transit of Russian gas, but data seem to be highly inflated.
"If we look retrospectively, in the past year we have received over the transit of Russian gas about 2 billion U.S. dollars, this year may increase because of the increased volume and slightly increased rate, — said the expert. — Fare is tied to the price of imported gas from the Russian Federation under the contract, revenues will be slightly more and will reach three billion U.S. dollars.
However, the "Nord stream" is not able to take such large volumes, so the estimate of $ 2.7 billion seems too high. Don't know who gave these data, probably the "Naftogaz"".
According to the economist, currently the Russian Federation is not interested in maintaining the transit flows through Ukraine in connection with a seriously complicated relations between Kiev and Moscow.
"I don't want to talk about politics, talk about politics, let the politicians, the spokesman said FAN. But we at one time had the perfect business model. Country energy supplier (Russia); country, at that time the largest transit country, the transit status is already almost lost (Ukraine); and the largest-consuming country is Germany, which continue for the coming years will remain the biggest consumer of Russian energy, whether we like it or not, want or not want in Washington."
However, due to various political games that took place in Ukraine, this business model has failed, said the expert.
"And then everything went on the thumb plane, and we got to where are now, — said Dmitry Marunych.
— That is, "Gazprom" with the greatest degree of probability implements the "Turkish stream" — he has already built more than three hundred kilometers in the two-line version. And "Naftogaz", has finally recognized this. In the "Naftogaz" was silent as partisans, they fought against "Northern stream-2", there were numerous visits to the European Union, meeting with U.S. representatives, where they talked about the terrible harm that will cause Ukraine "Nord stream-2".
But about the "Turkish stream" they were silent, although in the last public events of [the Executive Director of "Naftogaz" Andriy] KOBOLEV acknowledged that with the introduction of the "Turkish stream" from the transit revenue of "Naftogaz" immediately disappear half a billion dollars. It's obvious! Moreover, if we calculate the payback period of the "Turkish stream" is only 5-6 years! What kind of policy can be a speech?! If Kiev doesn't negotiate with the Russian, if he talks about "aggression" and other nonsense, why "Gazprom" to transport gas through the Ukrainian territory across the country, openly holding anti-Russian stance, if he has the business logic to build the "Turkish stream" and in 5-6 years to obtain a great payback? Deliveries to Turkey are growing, this year they grew by more than 20%".
the same situation exists around the "Nord stream-2," said co-Chairman of the Ukrainian Fund of energy strategies.
"Let's take the model of the "Nord stream-1". There the transit tariff depends on the volume load. The average transit rate of the "Nord stream-1" — is 2.1 U.S.
dollar per 100 kilometers. It turns out that when you download the "Nord stream-1", it is one hundred percent economically of the Russian Federation. The same thing will happen with the "Northern stream-2". There is a consortium in which Gazprom pays for the transit fixed fee per year, and then the more the volume of transit, the smaller transit rate.
In this case, "Gazprom" itself a part of this consortium. So half of the money back to Gazprom. That is, there is an iron economic logic, against which protesting are "freedom-loving" countries such as Poland, whose arguments I generally unclear. Poland, by contrast, will benefit, although directly where the pipe will not.
But Poland is on the reverse schemes to get gas from Germany, as Germany is a major hub for Russian gas in Europe. And it's not Russian arguments, is the direct business logic!" — said Dmitry Marunych.
let us Recall, "Naftogaz of Ukraine" is the state company of Ukraine for the extraction, transportation and processing of oil and natural gas..
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