Kyiv, September 8. The expert of Institute of world economy of NASU Vsevolod Stepanyuk commented on a Federal news Agency (FAN) conclusion of Agreement on Association of Ukraine with the EU.
According to experts, the Ukrainian authorities do not understand the consequences for the economic situation of a country refusing to trade with the Customs Union in favor of agreements with the EU.
Is a political agreement for Ukraine economically entirely flawed. What does it do? Ukraine is cut off from Eastern markets. In fact, the Association agreement prepares its territory and economy to the expansion of European and American manufacturers.
What will become of the industrial potential of the country?
- If you look at the conditions of the Association, in such enterprises of Ukraine as aircraft, rocket production, instrument-making, machine-tool has no chance to survive. And naturally, once these enterprises will be closed on the territory of Ukraine will go European corporations, international who will be here to produce in the best case, SKD. With all the scientific and high-tech enterprises in Ukraine will be finished. That is, the agreement is a way of expansion of transnational corporations into new territories.
The Association agreement greatly simplifies this task.
- the transition to the standards and regulations of the EU – it's good?
- the agreement explicitly says that Ukraine needs to harmonize, to do so, as they go on their standards and technical regulations. But high-tech enterprise of Ukraine simply do not have the means to do so. Ukraine has committed to follow the standards and regulations of the EU, which should require expenditures of $160 billion. when you consider that our entire economy now produces only $192 billion, the question of whether the economy is to invest $163 billion for transition to European standards, is rhetorical.
If the Europeans have allocated funds for this but the Association agreement does not provide for this. The Netherlands have ratified the Treaty with a reservation that Ukraine has no right to claim aid from the European budget. So in fact, this Treaty provided for a minor, the colonial status of Ukraine in relation to the European Union and the United States. The U.S.
Ambassador very clearly confirmed this when he said that Ukraine should be an agricultural country.
- What is the prognosis?
In the best case Ukraine will be the Assembly plant, but most likely it will be a bias in the raw material economy. Because in order to collect anything, as the Association says that the localization of production should be about 70%, it is unlikely that Ukraine will collect, for example "Mercedes" or "Toyota". Because to localize production in Ukraine in principle, it would be impossible to to 70% was value added in Ukraine.
In addition, with the entry into force of the free trade area of the course that will be closed the markets of the CIS, and then, I think that the markets of the Shanghai cooperation organization. If the SCO will deepen the integration of the economies of each other, the part of the participants, in particular the Russian Federation will insist that the trade regimes of other members of the SCO were the same as in the Russian Federation. Ukraine will have tariff restrictions with such a large part of the global market, will the interest of those same European corporates is anything to collect in the Ukraine, if they know that the sale of this product to Russia, to China, to India will be limited? In such conditions, Ukraine has more claim to the commodity economy.
in addition, Vsevolod Stepanyuk drew attention to the distortion of reality by the Ukrainian authorities.
"Power, to put it mildly, misleading the population about the increase of exports to the EU.
Yes, it takes place. But, first, this happens after a significant drop by 17% in 2014. And, most importantly, the export was lower than in 2012, when exports to the EU amounted to $18.4 billion," said Stepanyuk.
it Turns out that Ukraine at the time Yanukovych traded with the EU in greater volume and quality than now, when we concluded the agreement with the EU..