In Washington, the inauguration of the new American President Donald Trump. The 45th President of the United States was one of the first politicians of the new wave, decided to deviate from the templates, which for decades formed the previous government of the country. Trump said that he intends to fight international terrorism, to depart from the doctrine of free trade and return to protectionist economy. America during his presidency should be "great again" and stop trying to dictate to Europe how it to live.
Such statements in the West, and all over the world, caused quite a stir. Everywhere there are voices on the transition to a new political and economic architecture of the world. What transformations lie ahead if the new American President will begin to implement their ideas? We discussed with the first Vice-rector for international cooperation and external communications of Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, General Director of the national energy security Foundation, Konstantin Simonov.
In their statements, Donald Trump has focused on the revision of the regime of free trade and return to protectionist economy.
What promises to be the world in such conditions, what will happen to NAFTA?
– actually, this is a huge problem because for a very long time, many economists have said that the modern world is a world of open trade, it is a global world where capital moves freely, labour resources. And it was that countries that lag behind in development, poor countries will be able to take advantage of this global world, because there will be barriers, they can also come to the world capital market to offer their products worldwide. Their workforce, if they don't like, can migrate. At least it was some concept of hope.
But this world has experienced serious upheavals: the crisis of 2008, even before he was a serious crisis. Another question already – cyclical in nature, and a plan these cycles, not in this case. It is important that this model did not work. Once we experience a crisis, overload, means that the model is not fully effective.
How to treat? The question is also very interesting, and the cure turned out to be quite old, many times used.
This idea of protectionism, the Trump and made it very simple, so after Trump many voted. The Americans thought, "Really, why are we playing this global game?" Although America has benefited from this, but many did not believe. They saw the migrants, the increase of taxes, considered that a payment for the global world, and felt that America loses, although this was not the case. The result – a simple solution, protectionism, return to national apartment.
by the Way, we saw this in the European Union.
When the crisis began in 2008, many countries stated: "we Must stop these stories, even with a single European Union". Look at this wave. the Clearest example of this BREXIT, in fact, than it ended. But Britain in this respect is not the only country.
So Trump has offered old medicine: let's protectionism will do! But the problem is that. I agree with Trump about what, really, is the economy that we saw, was very ineffective from the point of view of solving global problems. Maybe the US can help it, but, in General, I'm afraid it will only exacerbate economic disparities in the world, and thus complicate the political situation in General.
– What is the TRANS-Pacific partnership?
– this is also a very interesting question, because Trump sees the TRANS-Pacific partnership as a problem for America.
I believe that the US is likely to benefit from this, because the idea is simple: "Let's exclude China from trade processes." And this idea fits in a pre-election program of the Trump. That is why I believe that this idea is realized up to the end will not, the United States will not withdraw from the TRANS-Pacific partnership.
it is Also amazing to me that Trump says he does not need to sign the Transatlantic partnership European Union because, in reality, even our analysis showed that the main payoffs will be the United States, and the biggest loser – the European Union. So in this respect, too, an interesting paradox: the European elite covered almost the last words of Trump, but really, they should put a monument to him, if he really abandon the Transatlantic partnership, because Europe would be the biggest loser in this story. But as the TRANS-Pacific partnership, I think that it will survive, and the counselor tell me, because this partnership solves his campaign goal is to deal with China one of the, in General, good methods.
– How you consider, whether will unleash a Trump if they impose sanctions? Today this question is quite painful, lots of talk about this, given that Trump somehow does not intend to conduct a balanced policy in relation to the people's Republic of China.
– You know a lot about Trump saying that he does not do what he says. I think that, indeed, there are some things that he "blurted out" in the heat of the election and is not going to do, and some of the things he spoke quite sincerely. I think that for China, is absolutely sincere part of his program. In this regard, it is the picture of the world Trump.
He considers China its main competitor, and it's not like it was in the period of the Democrats, who also understood the power of China, but there was an idea: "Let's try with China to divide the world into two. Okay, let's assume it so to be, with us as a Junior partner." Trump – no. He says: "No, guys, you and the world will not share. You are our enemies, competitors, we are going to fight." It is clearly shown.
And what he did after the election, these all calls to Taiwan and so on, is perfectly sincere in his position.
I'm sure that, indeed, these decisions will be made. That is, there will be serious restrictions on the access of Chinese goods to the US market, I don't even exclude that it will lead to a serious crisis the WTO and, possibly, to the collapse of this organization in the future. It will be a direct violation of the U.S. obligations, and in this respect, if the Chinese goods will diskriminirovaniya, the question arises about the existence of the WTO.
Russia, incidentally, also this issue could raise. So here China are facing hard times, I have no doubt about that.
But what campaign promises, in your opinion, Trump still does not comply?
– I have already said, from the perspective of the TRANS-Pacific partnership, I think it will continue.
– Yes, this is one of them. As for international terrorism, do you think?
international terrorism? Frankly, the Trump on the whole thing.
Let's see what he says regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Israeli-Arab conflict. He is not an expert in this subject. So here he is still a politician who had read some quick references and thinks that he understands. But the idea of Trump concerns us.
He said: "If we together with Russia will fight terrorism, it means the path to the lifting of sanctions and normal relations." I think that Trump is not particularly understand what terrorism is, how to deal with it and we can try to explain to him that we were just fighting terrorism. By the way, that's what we do, that's so. Look at the situation in Syria. I think that very much applies to economic decision-making in the United States because Trump promises to cut taxes, but increase government expenditure, there will have some priorities to choose.
The Trump, you know, saying sometimes contradictory things, so if you say "A", and then "not A" something you will do, and what not fulfill.
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